Just when you thought it couldn't get any crazier...

The usual apologies for lack of blog maintenance, it's been busy here. Rather than continue to grovel, let's get started with the update. This one's going to be a bit more intellectual (read: longer), so grab a beer and get comfortable.

Before I really begin, let me give the standard disclaimer that the following is my opinion only and in no way represents that opinions or beliefs of the US Government. Phew.

The past few months in Haitian politics (well, decades really) have played out as part Telemundo soap opera, part West Wing Episode, and part "you couldn't make this up if you tried." In order to try and explain recent events in the most cohesive way, let's lay out some facts:

The Players

Rene Preval - (Wikipedia) - The outgoing Haitian President

Jean-Claude Duvalier aka "Baby Doc" - (Wikipedia) - Haitan ruler/dictator from 1971 until he was exiled in 1986.

Jude Celestin - 2010 Presidential Candidate from Government-supported Party, a former mid-level government bureaucrat

Mirlande Manigat - 2010 Presidential Candidate, Constitutional Scholar and briefly Former Haitian First Lady

Michel Martelly aka "Sweet Micky" - 2010 Presidential Candidate, wildly popular Haitian musician

Though this story starts a long time ago, for our purposes, lets start with November 2010. The lead-up to Haiti's 2010 Presidential Election was certainly interesting, with many twists and turns (including the well-publicized saga of Wyclef Jean's failed attempt to make the ballot) but, on election day, 19 candidates appeared on the Presidential ballot. The front-runners were widely considered to the Manigat, Celestin and Martelly - but there was much dispute as to the split between those three.

The pervasive fear among many was that one candidate would attempt to commit massive fraud in order to "steal" the election, and so an international effort was put forward to help coordinate and oversee the execution of the will of the Haitian people. I was lucky to be part of that effort and, with thousands of other observers, from the Embassy as well as Haitian and International NGOs, went out into the country to observe the balloting. 

You can imagine how hard it is to run an election in a country with rampant illiteracy, poverty, geographically remote towns/villages, a heavily armed and uneducated population - not to mention billions of dollars of reconstruction money at stake as well as a raging cholera epidemic. For reference, see Florida 2000. Needless to say, the day was fraught with violence and a mid-afternoon call from 12 candidates (including Martelly and Manigat, but not Celestin) to annul the results of the election due to fraud. 

Nevertheless, the international community and Haitian government largely remained hopeful that the fraud was not rampant and the vote tallying could continue. In the end, both Manigat and Martelly both backed-down and agreed to await the final results (no doubt believing that they had done well). International observer teams also reported back their information findings to compare with the official results - which are released and certified by the CEP (Provisional Electoral Council), a committee appointed by the President.

In the run-up to the release of the results in early December, most international and domestic observers slowly leaked their findings that the two winners of the election (if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates go head-to-head in a second round) were Manigat and Martelly. So, you can imagine everyone's surprise when the CEP announced that it was Manigat and Celestin who would be advancing into the second round.

Let me back-up for a moment and say that, from my perspective, until this point in time, President Preval had been neither an incredibly liked, nor disliked, political figure. Widely regarded as a back-stage player, rather than a great presence/orator, Preval had been accused of being absent after the Earthquake but most agreed that he would be the first Haitian President in decades to be able to retire in Haiti.

Now, back to our story. The release of the CEP results immediately results in violence in the streets of Port-au-Prince, as well as other cities/towns. Supporters of Martelly pour into the streets - lighting barricades and tires on fire, throwing rocks at cars, shooting in the air, and just generally causing disruptions. They then are met by Celestin supporters who are heavily armed and the situation deteriorates. We, Embassy employees spent those 5 days on lockdown in our residences - Haitian snow days if you will. 

Now, never one to espouse violence, I do feel that for the Haitian people, violence may have been the natural choice. Over a million people are still living in tents, many spent weeks working to obtain the correct national identity documents to be eligible to vote, then spent all day trying to find the correct voting center using outdated lists and information, all to cast their vote in what was essentially, in their minds, an election which was stolen. Without a real voice, turning to violence was an understandable option in order to make themselves heard by a government that had failed them.

During this time, there is incredible political wrangling going on - with some candidates calling for an annulment of the results, only to change their mind the same day and agree to continue but only if other candidates were completely eliminated from the contest. In my opinion, every candidate probably committed some fraud - if only to play defense against the fraud they assumed their opponents were committing. However, from the evidence I've seen, it's pretty clear that Celestin did not have the popular support to make it to the second round on his own.

Celestin, being the government supported candidate from the same party as the President, is quickly linked to Preval and the vitriol spreads, effectively ruining Preval's reputation in-country. Under heavy international pressure, Preval agreed to invite an international review of the election results as a way to stem the ongoing crisis in the streets. The parties agree that the review will be conducted by the OAS (Organization of American States) as a neutral arbiter. 

This agreement is reached in the days before Christmas and is what allowed me to leave Haiti for a vacation in the US (American Airlines having previously cancelled all flights to Port-au-Prince) - a Christmas miracle from the CEP for a young Jewish guy. I returned to a very anxious Haiti in early January - awaiting both the release of the OAS report and the first anniversary of the January 12th earthquake.

In the days immediately before the anniversary, the OAS announces that they have completed their review and, on January 10, the results are leaked to the press - the OAS has concluded that Manigat and Martelly should move forward, leaving Celestin out of the second round. However, Preval refuses to meet with the OAS for days - he claims out of respect for victims of the earthquake but many observers fearing that he was simply stalling. Finally, on January 13, Preval agrees to a meeting with the OAS where he receives their recommendation.

In theory, Preval then passes the recommendation to the CEP and everyone waits for the announcement of the decision as to whether or not the CEP will accept or reject the OAS recommendation. I headed out of town this weekend with some friends (the Embassy was closed yesterday) and on Sunday night, we began to get reports that Jean-Claude Duvalier was returning to Haiti on a flight from Guadelope. Haitian society seems to operate on rumors so we were hesitant, but as the night went on, it became clear that he had, in fact, landed at the airport.

Let's talk for a minute about Duvalier. "Baby Doc," as he's known, took over rule of the country upon his father's death, when he was just 19 years old. Though his rule in Haiti was widely seen as better than that of his father, most historians agree that Baby Doc continued to rule with an iron fist - killing and torturing those who disagreed with him or stood in his way and living an incredibly lavish lifestyle while Haitians sunk deeper and deeper into oppressive poverty. There are obviously those who dispute this and place some blame on others, but regardless, Baby Doc, in the face of rising pressure from Haitians, fled the country into self-imposed exile in France.

At the time, Baby Doc was widely reviled in Haiti - not only for his oppressive policies, but also for the accusation that he took millions of dollars in government funds with him when he fled. However, over the past 20 years as successive governments have been unable to get this country back on it's feet, there has been a rise in nostalgia for the Duvalier period. In my mind, this is a comment on two things primarily; the failure of the past 20+ years of governance in Haiti and, the reality that the median age in this country is 20 years old - a huge percentage having been born after Duvalier left power with no memory of those years other than stories passed down.

So, just when it looked like Preval and the CEP were going to accept the OAS recommendation (and as we braced for violence, Celestin having reportedly paid $20mil to arm supporters, though just a rumor), Duvalier returns to Haiti on an expired diplomatic passport and takes up shelter in a hotel with his entourage.

Today, the drama unfolded in real-time as Duvalier was taken from his hotel in a police SUV to the courthouse after having met with a chief prosecutor and police chief. At this point, all is still conjecture, but there are a number of theories competing for top spot. Duvalier looks visibly weak and frail, leading some to conclude that he returned to Haiti in order to die with his people. Others argue that it was everyone from the US to France to Preval to Martelly who brought Duvalier back for political gain. Some claim that this is just a precursor to the return of Jean Bertrand Aristide, another exiled Haitian leader currently living in South Africa (although recently rumored to be waiting in Panama for the all-clear to return to Haiti). And finally, some say that Duvalier was moved by the earthquake memorials and wanted to return to his country.

Whatever the case, it appears that there is no warrant out for Duvalier's arrest - though individuals have threatened to file charges against him and there are now claims that he will be arraigned on government charges from his rule in Haiti. Preval previously stated, in 2007, that Duvalier was welcome to return but would have to face charges stemming from his rule.

Whatever the case, the question remains: Why now, after 25 years in exile, did Duvalier return now?

From there, a million more questions exist, but we'll just have to wait and see. All I know is that every time I think I have some handle on this country, its leaders and the political system - I am absolutely shocked by what happens next.

I hope you enjoyed the tour through Haitian political history, hopefully more to come as this plays out...